Why 2009 won't be the same as 1999

The Independent this morning picks up on Sly Bailey's comments that the current economic meltdown may lead to another meltdown,that of the internet similar top that which occurred in the first dot.com collapse.

Is he right-well Ian Reeves takes a long hard look at the proposition and adds the comments of Maurice Levy, the chairman and chief executive of Publicis, who says

"Far too many people are building plans based on advertising and they may well be disappointed because there is not enough money for everyone," he said. "It's exactly the same situation as we saw at the end of the 1990s, when everyone thought that because he had a website he'd get the valuation. Now everyone building a Web 2.0 operation believes he will receive the advertising."

Whilst there are signs that an advertising downturn is upon us Reeves is mildly optimistic pointing to signs that

internet advertising spend has been above expectations for the six months to June, despite the downturn. "We're seeing serious consumer demand, and an increasing realisation that online is the most efficient way of satisfying that need

The problem he says is that publishers

don't see much of that cash. And the hopes that online display advertising would close that gap simply don't seem to be materialising. The buzz word is "accountability". If you're a marketer in the current economic climate, it's much easier to show your finance director the precise benefits from your search-based campaign – you can literally count the clicks – than from brand-awareness campaigns.